It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. What results did you discover? Here's why. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. . Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). These are the bellwether counties. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. ET. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! 2020 Election (1210) And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Trump won 18 of the 19. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). 5. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. 11. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. It also backed Gov. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The divisions were everywhere. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. In their . What, if anything, did we miss? They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. All other 21 counties voted Republican. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. our Gitlab account where you can Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. (subject to censorship). For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Read about our approach to external linking. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Republicans have paid some attention. Do you know this baby? Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Their emotions and decision making process are real. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. (i.e. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. They're just facts about the vote. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Will That Last?]. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? These counties could play an . Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Enter Donald Trump. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Outstanding. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. That's 14 in a row. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Watauga has gone for. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). But both are worth watching. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Trump gave them hope. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. 12. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. It is easy to gloss over this. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. 3. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. hide caption. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. 2. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. But it's also not unprecedented. There are 391 such counties. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT.
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